There is a common misconception in sports betting that the best football odds can be found at Betfair and Pinnacle Sports. Although this might be true on the surface, punters who understand odds well enough to calculate the value of promotions will find much better value at www.bet365.com. Here you’ll find two significant promotions that make a world of difference. The first is their accumulator bonus offered on major European football matches. The second is their Bore Draw refund which applies to all football matches (including I-League). In this article I’ll cover details of each promotion and conclude by showing that these promos combine to make the football odds at Bet365 the best online sports betting has to offer.
Football Accumulator Bonus
When wagering Premier League, Serie A, Primera Liga, Bundesliga 1 or Champions League Bet365 offers a bonus on all accumulator wins of trebles or larger. This starts as a 5% bonus for trebles, a 7.5% bonus for 4-folds, a 10% bonus for 5-folds, and each additional fold increases the bonus by 10% until a 100% bonus is reached for 14-folds. So for example if you made a wager on a trebles accumulator where all selections were priced at odds 1.91, the normal return is 6.96. At Bet365 you’ll get your normal return plus an additional 5% of winnings. This gives you effective odds of 1.936 per team instead of the standard 1.91, which increases the overall odds on trebles to an effective 7.258.
I’ll save sharing the tedious, but rather simple, math and just share the results. Having calculated the effective value of 1.91 selections added to all accumulator sizes offered in the Bet365 promotion, I found the effective odds for each individual selection are as follows:
- 3-team Accumulator – 5% Bonus – *1.936 effective odds*
- 4-team Accumulator – 7.5% Bonus – *1.941 effective odds*
- 5-team Accumulator – 10% Bonus – *1.944 effective odds*
- 6-team Accumulator – 20% Bonus – *1.967 effective odds*
- 7-team Accumulator – 30% Bonus – *1.981 effective odds*
- 8-team Accumulator – 40% Bonus – *1.991 effective odds*
- 9-team Accumulator – 50% Bonus – *1.997 effective odds*
- 10-team Accumulator – 60% Bonus – *2.001 effective odds*
- 11-team Accumulator – 70% Bonus – *2.003 effective odds*
- 12-team Accumulator – 80% Bonus – *2.005 effective odds*
- 13-team Accumulator – 90% Bonus – *2.005 effective odds*
- 14-team Accumulator – 100% Bonus – *2.006 effective odds*
To make sure where clear here, these are examples when all selection are what bookmakers consider a coin flip (50/50 odds). If there was no bookmaker advantage the odds would be 2.000 (which is 10/10 in fraction odds and +100 in American odds). With the bookmaker advantage betting sites price these at 1.91 European (which is 10/11 in fraction odds and -110 in American odds). Here we just illustrated that you’re getting slightly over a 100% payback when betting football accumulators at Bet365, the odds are similar for selections regardless of price, I just chose 1.91 odds to simplify the example.
Bet365 Bore Draw Promotion
Bet365 also has a promotion where football wagers are refunded when matches finish in a 0-0 tie. This applies to all football competitions (including India’s I-League) for prematch wagers made on Full Time, Correct Score, Half Time, and Scorecast Wagers. So for example on 7 May 2011 there was an I-League match between Viva Kerla and ONGC that finished 0-0. If before the match you wagered at Bet365 on either team (as opposed to the draw) your bet was refunded even though draw was an option so the bet should have been a loss. This adds significant value to the betting odds and is something professional sports bettors certainly do the math on before placing their bets.
How to Calculate the Bore Draw Value
Although a bit advanced for recreational punters, I’m going through in detail how to calculate the value of the bore draw. Once you realize its value I’m sure you’ll be placing many wagers at Bet365 that you might have otherwise placed at Betfair or Pinnacle Sports.
Step One – Find the Best Odds
When using this step you should shop as many betting sites as possible. At Bet365 the odds for this match were:
Viva Kerala – 2.15
Draw – 3.20
ONGC – 3.20
For reason that Bet365 allows Indians to deposit, wager and withdrawal in Indian Rupee, and also has bonus and promotions friendly to Indians, I strongly prefer to use them as opposed to other sites which charge a fortune on currency conversion fees and don’t offer bonuses. Even so to properly handicap the market, I want to shop as many football betting sites as possible to find the best odds. In doing that I found:
Viva Kerala – 2.32 (SBOBet)
Draw – 3.30 (Youwin)
ONGC – 3.50 (Bwin)
These are the odds I want to work with.
Step #2 Remove the Vig
Bookies make their profits by charging more than the fair price for betting odds. To properly see the chances the betting market is giving each team of winning we need to remove this advantage (called vig). This is a multi-step process which starts with converting the odds to an implied probability. The math for this is 1/odds=implied probability. I’ll go ahead and do that using the best market odds I found for each option.
Viva Kerala – 1/2.32= 43.10% Implied Probability
Draw – 1/3.30= 30.30% Implied Probability
ONGC – 1/3.50= 28.57% Implied Probability
To make sure it is clear, implied probability is how often you’d need a team to win on average to break even. So for example if you thought Viva Kerla would win this match outright (no draw) 42% of the time, it would be foolish to bet them at 2.32 because the implied probability is 43.1%. However if you felt they were 45% likely to win this match then wagering at 2.32 would be a great bet.
Going back to our example:
When adding up the “implied probability” of each potential outcome (43.1+30.3+28.57) – we see these total 101.97%. If the odds were fair, meaning the bookmakers had no advantage, these would total 100%. The good news is we can use very simply math to see what the market price is without vig. All we need to do is divide each teams implied probability by 101.97%. Doing this:
Viva Kerala – 43.10/101.97= 42.27% no-vig probability
Draw – 30.30/101.97= 29.71% no-vig probability
ONGC – 28.57/101.97= 28.02% no-vig probability
If you total these new figures together you’ll see they calculate to 100%. We’ve removed the vig and now know the overall betting market is giving Viva Kerala a true 42.27% chance, the Draw a 29.71% chance, and ONGC a 28.02% chance.
Step 3 – Calculate the Probability of a 0-0 Draw
Luckily for us several betting sites were offering a market on exact scores of 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3. Yes, while it is possible a game could end tied 4-4, 5-5 or 6-6, this has never happened in i-League and is so rare the chances of it happening represents fractions no greater than would be rounded off in our analysis. So here let’s use the best odds I found for each score and calculate their implied probability.
The Best Odds
0-0 – 11.00 Odds (Bet365)
1-1 – 6.50 Odds (Bet365)
2-2 – 15.0 Odds (Sporting Bet)
3-3 – 67.0 Odds (Victor Chandler)
0-0 – 1/11.00=9.09% Implied Probability
1-1 – 1/6.50= 15.38% Implied Probability
2-2 – 1/15.00= 6.67% Implied Probability
3-3 – 1/67.00= 1.49% Implied Probability
Now where this gets slightly tricky is these implied probabilities total 32.63% and in our previous step we concluded the overall market is giving the draw a true chance of 29.71%. So what we need to do is take 32.63/29.71=1.0983. To remove vig from the implied probabilities we just calculated we need to divide each by 1.0983.
0-0 –9.09/1.0983= 8.28% no-vig probability
1-1 –15.38/1.0983=14.00% no-vig probability
2-2 –6.67%/1.0983=6.07% no-vig probability
3-3 –1.49%/1.0983=1.36% no-vig probability
To double check our math we add all four of the figures above and see they total 29.71%. This is the same 29.71% chance of a draw we calculated in step 2. So what we now know is the market has the chances of a 0-0 draw at 8.28% and therefore has the remaining (29.71%-8.28%) 21.43% as the chance of any other draw happening.
To recap – using these three steps we’ve capped the market and found the following to be the markets opinion of each outcomes probability:
Viva Kerala 42.27% probability
0-0 Draw – 8.28% probability
Other Draws 21.43% probability.
ONGC 28.02% probability
Double checking once again all four figures total 100% so our math should be correct.
Step 4 Decide on a Bet
Now it’s just a process of doing the math. At SBO Bet the odds for Viva Kerala were 2.32. Let’s see what the expected value is based on a Rs. 1000 stake on Viva Kerla.
42.27% win Rs. 1320 = +557.96 expecation
57.73% Lose Rs. 1000 = -(577.30) expectation
So what we see at SBO Bet is on average we expect to lose Rs. 19.34 for each Rs. 1000 we stake on Viva Kerla.
Doing the same at Bet365 where the odds were 2.15
42.27% win Rs. 1150 = +486.10 expectation
8.28% break even = 0.00 expectation
49.45% lose Rs. 1000 = (494.50)
So at Bet365 we expect to lose an average of Rs. 8.4 for every Rs. 1000 we stake on Viva Kerla.
What we’ve just shown is that odds 2.15 at Bet365 were better than 2.32 offered at SBO Bet. Meanwhile to make sure it is clear at Betfair most traders 2.28 effective odds on this match and at Pinnacle they’d have 2.31. SBO bet offered the best odds on the surface for this match. Digging further we see the effective odds at Bet365 are far better, it just took doing a lot of simple math to figure this out. To be clear again, more times than not, when taking advantage of all the promotions Bet365 offers – you’ll get far more value wagering with them than you’ll find at all other betting sites.
Combining Both Promotions
Although it’s not available for I-League wagers, any Indians a fan of English Premier League or any other popular Euro football league should be thrilled to know that the accumulator bonus and the Bore Draw Refund promotion can be combined. If in an accumulator the final score is 0-0, it is removed as if that selection didn’t exist. So for example if you had a 5-fold accumulator which would normally get a 10% bonus, and you won 4 selections and lost the other due to a 0-0 draw, you’ll get paid on a 4-fold accumulator (as opposed to 5-fold) and your bonus will be the 4-fold 5% not the 5-fold 7.5%. Selections which finish 0-0 are simply removed as if that selection was never part of the wager.
Other Reasons to Choose Bet365
Bet365 has a wider selection of football, cricket, tennis and F1 racing markets than any other site. Also using Bet365 Live, if a match for any sport they covered is televised anywhere in the world they’ll accept in-play wagers on it. It is also possible to watch live streams of many games right from their website.
With a 15% up to Rs. 2500 initial deposit match, first time bettors end up with even better effective odds. From here Bet365 offers a plethora of promotions, literally dozens of them – in this article I covered only two. Also they have a fully integrated online casino, race book, poker room and online bingo hall. Add all this to the fact using Neteller or Moneybookers Indians can deposit, withdrawal, and wager in Indian Rupee (INR) and they are the most logical choice for anyone in India looking to bet sports online. To learn more read our Bet365 Review, or – to get started with them, visit www.bet365.com.