Football Betting: Bundesliga

Bundesliga betting

Bundesliga is a highly competitive league where teams fight to the death and encourage attacking play. It’s right up there for the highest average goals per game. No wonder it makes for some great Bundesliga betting and satta opportunities!

However, if the average football fan were to nominate the three best football leagues in the world, Bundesliga would probably just miss out to the English Premier League, La Liga and Serie A.

But try telling that to Bundesliga fans who travel to games up and down. They show remarkable loyalty and dedication, week in, week out, irrespective of their team’s fortunes. This is the most widely watched football league in the world in terms of bums on seats on a weekly basis and the second-highest sports league in terms of average attendance per game. The average of 45,134 fans per game (2018) was second only to the NFL, while Borussia Dortmund can claim to be the football team in the world with the highest average home attendance.

Fans of the Bundesliga will also argue that given Germany’s top division lies third (above Serie A) in UEFA’s League coefficient ranking for 2019-20, it deserves more respect.

If it’s that popular among German football fans, there must be a reason.

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Bundesliga Winners: Bayern stand out like a sore thumb

If there is one somewhat fair criticism of the Bundesliga, it’s that there has been one dominant force in it ever since the first season in this format under this name that it took place back in 1963, 57 years ago.

The Bayern Munich light shines very bright in German football and they’ve won almost exactly half (28) of all those Bundesliga campaigns.

It’s hardly surprising. The Bayern Munich players of past and present reads like a ‘who’s who’ of German football in terms of players, while some of the world’s best non-German players have also worn the famous shirt. German greats like Sepp Maier, Franz Beckenbauer, Paul Breitner, Lothar Matthaus, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, Stefan Effenberg, Oliver Kahn, Tomas Muller, Philipp Lahm and Manuel Neuer. In terms of imports, the likes of Bixente Lizarazu, Giovane Elber, Samuel Kuffour, Mark Van Bommel, Xabi Alonso, Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and more recently, Robert Lewandowski. More on him in a bit.

There’s Bayern, then there’s daylight

As is so often the case, success breeds success. The more titles Bayern win to go with strong showings in the Champions League (they’ve won it twice since it became the Champions League), the more of the world’s best players—both domestic and foreign—they can attract to the club, as well as bring in some of the world’s best coaches like Pep Guardiola, Carlo Ancelotti, Giovanni Trapattoni, and Beckenbauer. Which of course leads to more success.

There’s then a huge gap in terms of number of wins to Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach, who have just five each. Werder Bremen have four, FC Koln have two and Wolfsburg have one.

So yes, there has been a clear dominance from FC Hollywood, as they’re known, although you could argue that leagues like the Portuguese one (Benfica), Belgian (Anderlecht) and Greek (Olympiakos) paint a similar picture.

Bayern have been particularly ruthless over the last decade, winning the last eight editions and some of them at a canter. But they can be stopped. Under Jurgen Klopp, Dortmund won back-to-back titles in 2010-11 and 2011-12 so it shows that if you have the right man for the job and the right players at the same time, Bayern aren’t quite invincible.

Bundesliga Top Goalscorers

It’s a little but too late in the day for Bayern’s great Polish striker Robert Lewandowski to become the Bundesliga’s top scorer ever. Lewandowski’s 236 goals (and counting) put him third on the list courtesy of over 320 appearances in the Bundesliga, first for Dortmund and then Bayern. He may still catch up with Klaus Fischer (268 goals) though, if he carries on for a couple more seasons.

The Bundesliga King when it comes to goals though is the inimitable Gerd Muller. A key figure in West Germany’s 1974 World Cup win on home soil, the stocky goal-poacher scored 365 goals in a 14-year career in the Bundesliga (always for Bayern, surprise surprise) and it’s hard to see how that mark will ever be reached again.

Other notable names on the Top 10 list are Jupp Heynckes who went on to manage Bayern to a treble including the Champions League a manager, and Peruvian striker Claudio Pizarro.

Leading goal scorers in Bundesliga football history

# Player Years Goals Apps Ratio Club(s)
1  Gerd Müller 1965–1979 365 427 0.85 Bayern 365/427
2  Klaus Fischer 1968–1988 268 535 0.50 Schalke 182/295, Köln 31/96, 1860 Munich 28/60, Bochum 27/84
3  Robert Lewandowski 2010– 236 321 0.74 Bayern 162/190, Dortmund 74/131
4  Jupp Heynckes 1965–1978 220 369 0.60 M’gladbach 195/283, Hannover 25/86
5  Manfred Burgsmüller 1969–1990 213 447 0.48 Dortmund 135/224, Bremen 34/115, Essen 32/74, Nürnberg 12/34
6  Claudio Pizarro 1999–2020 197 490 0.40 Bremen 109/250, Bayern 87/224, Köln 1/16
7  Ulf Kirsten 1990–2003 181 350 0.52 Leverkusen 181/350
8  Stefan Kuntz 1983–1999 179 449 0.40 Kaiserslautern 75/170, Bochum 47/120, Uerdingen 32/94, Bielefeld 25/65
9  Dieter Müller 1973–1986 177 303 0.58 Köln 159/248, Stuttgart 14/30, Saarbrücken 4/23, Offenbach 0/2
 Klaus Allofs 1975–1993 424 0.42 Köln 88/177, Düsseldorf 71/169, Bremen 18/78

Lewandowski has made the top goalscorer competition something of one-horse race himself. He won it five times out of the last seven editions, the first of which during the 2013-14 season while still at Dortmund and also four times at Bayern. Only Alexander Meier (2014-15) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (2016-17) were able to deny him.

Did you know?

When you’ve scored just under 400 career goals for club and country, including an excellent record of 61 goals in 112 games for Poland, there are surely plenty of secrets to your success. But Robert Lewandowski has a special one when it comes to diet. He eats his dessert before eating the rest of his meal because he believes the sugar in his pudding is digested quicker. It takes all kinds…

Bundesliga football betting

No bookmaker worth their salt would leave out offering lots of Bundesliga betting odds every week and it probably ranks as third or fourth for being the football league with the most betting activity on it every weekend. Let’s look at some of the markets they offer Bundesliga betting odds on and we’ll even give you a couple of solid Bundesliga betting tips to get you under way.

Bundesliga betting: Season markets

Winner

As we’ve seen already, it hasn’t been much fun playing this market over the past few years. Either you take an extremely short price about Bayern winning yet again, or you take a leap of faith and go for someone else at a big price.

First up, there’s not much wrong with taking odds of around 1.3 at the start of the season on a side who has won the last seven in a row. After all, no high street bank will give you that sort of return over the course of a year.

If you’re going to take the second option, the best Bundesliga betting tip is that it’s probably only really worth going with Dortmund. They’re the only ones who look to have the infrastructures, facilities and most importantly of all, players, to challenge for the tile. With the brilliant young striker Erling Haaland now on board, a man who can give Bayern’s Lewandowski a run for his money, they have the missing piece in the jigsaw because there’s plenty of talent in other areas with the likes of Jadon Sancho, Thorgan Hazard, Raphael Guerreiro and Axel Witsel. If Dortmund can hold not their biggest names, they could well wrestle the title back from Bayern.

Even in 2019-20, they were running Bayern very close before the Coronavirus break took the wind out of their sails; they lost 1-0 at home to Bayern after the resumption and that was that.

Other long-term Bundesliga markets

As is the case with any other top football league, you’ll also be able to place football betting season-long wagers on such things as a Top 2 Finish, a Top 3 Finish, who will be relegated, Bundesliga top goalscorer and head to head season bets.

Bundesliga Betting: Match markets

Match Odds

This is a highly competitive league and with the possible exception of Bayern, teams believe they can go out and get a result against just about everyone.

As ever, the secret is to use stats and patterns to help pick the best Bundesliga bets at the best Bundesliga odds. One way to do that is to look at teams who have particularly strong home or away records.

Let’s take Hoffenheim as an example. In the 2019-20 season, they finished sixth and there was nothing too remarkable about their home record, where they actually lost more games at home (9) than they won (7). But when it came to playing away, they were very good indeed. They won eight, drew six and lost just three. If you’d backed them every week at high odds over the course of the season, you would have made a decent profit. And you would have done the same by backing the opposition when Hoffenheim were at home.

It was a very different story with Freiburg. They were poor away from home with just four wins all season but did pretty well when at home. They won over half of their home matches and very often at extremely generous odds so were a good bet when at home.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

When we said there were lots of goals scored in the Bundesliga every week, we weren’t joking. Of the Top 5 European Leagues—England, Germany, Italy, France and Spain—it’s the one with the most goals per game and the only one to boast an average of over 3 goals a game (3.1 to be precise).

It goes a long way to explaining why the Bundesliga odds on over 2.5 goals in any given game are normally pretty short at around the 1.6 mark. That means there’s little value in terms of backing over 2.5 goals but there are alternatives and here are a couple of good Bundesliga betting tips.

One is to push the boat out and go with teams to have over 3.5 goals in their games, instead.  In the 2019-20 season both Paderborn and RB Leipzig saw 53% of their home games go over 3.5 goals so would have rated a good bet at anything over even money (2.0) for their home games to have had over 3.5 goals, sometimes at Bundesliga odds far bigger than those.

You can of course also go the other way. Freiburg, Union Berlin and Wolfsburg all saw less than half of their home games go over 2.5 goals so the smart money would have been on their matches being under 2.5 goals when at home and almost always, at odds bigger than 2.0.

Top Bundesliga Betting Tip

An alternative to backing over 2.5 goals is to go for ‘yes’ on the both teams to score market. Not only does it include all the 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 2-2 score lines but crucially it also covers that most common of scores that is 1-1.

Again, look for sides with strong patterns for that outcome. One such candidate is Augsburg, who saw 76.5% of their home games in 2019-20 have both teams scoring. That included a run from mid-December onwards where eight out of nine had both teams score at least once.