Five states in India are at present holding elections to their legislatures and poll fever is widespread. The media has branded this as the semi-finals before the general elections of 2024. The focus is therefore understandably on two of the biggest states Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Punjab.

The results will be announced on March 10, 2022, and then the nation will hold its breath. The pollsters, candidates, political parties, voters, and even the Indian betting community will be glued to television sets that day.

2022 India election betting is picking up momentum. The assembly elections will decide the mood of the public ahead of the main 2024 India elections.

We analyze the odds to win India elections so that you can also make profits at the betting sites. If you do not know how to deposit on betting sites, we have you covered.

2022 India Election Betting: UP

Uttar Pradesh sends the maximum number of members to the Lok Sabha and has the biggest state assembly with 403 seats. It is generally believed that if a party has to excel in the general elections, it has to win UP first, and this is the reason why this state election becomes important.

In the 2017 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came into power with a whopping majority of 312 seats but is not expected to repeat the performance this time. India’s PM Modi along with CM Yogi has been doing a lot of virtual rallies to win the election for his party.

Some of the best betting sites in India have placed BJP to win the UP elections 2022.

India Election Odds: UP ELECTION ODDS 2022

We have tabulated odds offered on the number of seats won for each principal political party in UP. After checking several India election betting sites, we feel these are the most representative.

Party Outcome Odds On Betway
BJP More than 225 seats 1.61
BJP Less than 225 seats 2.20
SP More than 130 seats 2.10
SP Less than 130 seats 1.66
BSP More than 12 seats 2.00
BSP Less than 12 seats 1.72

Betting on BJP

Credible media reports indicate that there is a consolidation of BJP support since the opinion polls, which were released in the last week of January 2022. India’s PM Narendra Modi & the current UP CM Yogi Adityanath are known for their speech delivery to win over people.

Hence, BJP winning more than 225 seats seems a fairly safe bet and we recommend that you go for it. 2022 UP election satta bhav for BJP is currently 1.61 on Betway which gives them a high implied win probability.

Betting on SP

If you want a betting option for SP, we suggest you go for less than 130 seats. Though the SP will gain from the previous election tally, it is unlikely to cross 130 seats. The hijab protests are not taking place in UP, but the Hindu-Muslim polarised atmosphere will result in the SP losing any Hindu support it was hoping to get.

Betting on BSP

Mayawati, the BSP’s usually vociferous leader, has been silent for most of the campaign. And because its absolute numbers are small, projections have a higher margin of error. We advise you not to put any money on either BSP option because the uncertainties are too high.

Top India Election Betting Sites

UP Existing Seats and Opinion Polls

Before we analyse the India election odds, it is important to understand the lay of the land in terms of the existing assembly makeup and the opinion poll outcomes.

There are numerous such polls available in the media and we have picked the ABP News – C Voter survey, which is reputed and representative.

Party Existing Strength Projected Seats Gain/Loss
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 312 230 82 loss
Samajwadi Party (SP) 47 150 103 gain
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 19 12 7 loss

Despite claims of infrastructure development and improving the law-and-order situation, the BJP is slipping. Two reasons have been cited by political experts.

  • The backward section of society has been disenchanted as is evident from their leaders leaving the BJP in significant numbers. From the opinion polls, it seems they will vote for SP, but actually, the BSP is the party that has a strong backward community vote base.
  • The BJP government at the center tried to introduce farm reforms that would benefit many small farmers, but adversely affect a powerful farmer-politician nexus rooted partly in Western UP. Though the laws were withdrawn, the anger in that region still persists.

With the UP elections getting over now, most exit polls are giving BJP a landslide victory in UP. The exit polls are giving BJP 240+ in Uttar Pradesh.

It is also evident from the above table, that the BJP’s loss is the SP’s gain. The SP is a Muslim-dominated principal opposition party in UP that is attracting all types of dissidents.

2022 India Election Betting: Punjab

Punjab shares a large border with Pakistan and needs a strong government. Unfortunately, elections in India 2022 are likely to result in a hung assembly in Punjab and we analyse the reasons.

India Election Odds: Punjab ELECTION ODDS 2022

We have tabulated odds offered on the number of seats won for each principal political party in Punjab and offer our analysis and tips based on ground reality.

Party Outcome Odds On Betway
AAP More than 59.5 seats 1.85
AAP Less than 59.5 seats 1.85
INC More than 33.5 seats 1.85
INC Less than 33.5 seats 1.85
SAD More than 20.5 seats 1.85
SAD Less than 20.5 seats 1.85

Betting on INC

The ouster of Captain Amarinder Singh led to the reduction of the INC numbers from the existing 77 to a possible 40 in the opinion polls, which were released three weeks ago. The daily bickering between the Sidhu and Channi factions on national television is further damaging the party’s cause. Our pick is less than 33.5 seats for INC.

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Betting on AAP

Based on the latest media reports and opinions of political pundits, we feel that the losses of the INC will not be transferred totally as gains to AAP. Bhagwant Mann, the party’s chief ministerial face, does not have a political pedigree. Further, allegations of improper funding are again surfacing, this time from a once close confidante of the AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal.

These issues will count when the voting is held on February 20th. We feel that betting on less than 59.5 seats for AAP is likelier to succeed. If AAP does not reach the halfway tally of 59 seats, there will be a hung assembly.

Betting on SAD

SAD does not figure much in the political discourse leading up to the elections. It seems that the party is lying low for now and will try to become a more important player in the general elections of 2024 or the next Punjab elections of 2027. If you want to bet on SAD, go for the less than 20.5 option.

Existing Seats and Opinion Polls: Punjab

The situation in Punjab (with 117 seats in the assembly) has been made complex by the political cataclysm of a few months ago, the outcome of which is apparent in the table below.

Party Existing Strength Projected Seats Gain/Loss Seats
Aam Admi Party (AAP) 20 55 35 gain
Indian National Congress (INC) 77 40 37 loss
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 18 20 2 gain

Congress won the 2017 Punjab elections comfortably under the leadership of the powerful Captain Amarinder Singh, who became the chief minister. The Gandhi family that controls INC nationally was averse to Captain being so dominant.

It backed a move to oust the stalwart leader from the party and replace him with Charanjit Singh Channi, a Sikh from the backward community in the hope of attracting that section’s votes. This has not been taken to kindly by the belligerent Navjot Singh Sidhu who had engineered Captain’s exit.

AAP has a running government in the state of Delhi, which is quite popular and has been putting in the effort to consolidate its support in Punjab. SAD, which was once a force to reckon with, has been steadily losing ground, mainly on allegations of backing drug mafias. With the voting over now, most exit polls say that AAP will be getting 60+ seats in Punjab.

Amarinder Singh has floated a new party called Punjab Lok Congress and has tied up with BJP but the party is not expected to win more than a couple of seats in the 2022 Indian election of Punjab.

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